GDP q/q (ZAR) comes in at -0.2% against 0.3% consensus

South Africa’s Gross Domestic Product, GDP q/q, registered a contraction of -0.2%. This figure was below the market consensus expectation of 0.3%. The previous quarter’s reading stood at 0.5%. The actual print represents a surprise of -166.7% compared to the consensus forecast.

The USDZAR pair reacted to the data, initially moving -38 pips within five minutes of the release. Fifteen minutes after the publication, USDZAR was trading +25 pips higher from its pre-release level. These observed movements are larger than the typical historical volatility for this event. The median one hour move for USDZAR after past GDP releases has been 16 pips, with top-quarter releases seeing shifts of 16 pips or more.