Industrial Production y/y comes in at -0.5% against 2.3% consensus

Brazil’s Industrial Production year over year was reported at -0.5%, a notable miss against market expectations. The consensus forecast had anticipated a reading of 2.3%, while the previous month’s figure stood at 1.7%. This actual print represents a significant surprise of -121.7% when compared to the analyst consensus.

In the immediate aftermath of the data, USDBRL moved +11 pips within five minutes of the release, further extending to +31 pips fifteen minutes after. For context, USDBRL has historically experienced a median one hour move of 246 pips after past releases. The top quarter of these releases have seen movements of 271+ pips. The current measured reaction is notably small when compared to these typical historical movements.