Initial Jobless Claims comes in at 197K against 199K consensus

Initial Jobless Claims for the United States were released today, October 15, 2026, at 197K. This figure came in below the market consensus expectation of 199K, representing a -1.0% surprise. The previous week’s reading was also 197K, indicating stability in initial jobless claims compared to expectations.

Following the release, the US Dollar showed varied reactions against major currencies. AUDUSD initially declined 10 pips in the first five minutes before recovering to a +0.4 pip change after 15 minutes. EURUSD dropped 16 pips initially, then moved to a +4.6 pip change after 15 minutes. GBPUSD saw an initial 14-pip decline, followed by a +6.3 pip change after 15 minutes. NZDUSD fell 10 pips initially, then recovered to a +2.9 pip change after 15 minutes. USDCAD rose 16 pips in the first five minutes, then settled to a -0.6 pip change after 15 minutes. USDCHF gained 10 pips initially, then moved to a -5.7 pip change after 15 minutes. USDJPY rose 11 pips initially, then reversed to a -18 pip change after 15 minutes. XAUUSD, or Gold, saw a significant decline of 136 pips in the first five minutes, then was down 42 pips after 15 minutes. These initial moves are generally smaller than the typical median 1-hour moves observed after past releases, such as EURUSD’s median 10-pip move or XAUUSD’s median 29-pip move. For context, EURUSD’s direction reliability on such releases has been 54% in a live sample.