US Unemployment Claims - ForexCracked
United States · Employment

US Unemployment Claims USD

Medium impact Updated after every release
Next release Thu, Oct 15 12:30 UTC · consensus 199K · previous 197K  

What this release is

US Unemployment Claims measure the number of new applications for unemployment benefits filed by individuals in the United States. This weekly report is published by the US Department of Labor, providing a timely snapshot of job market health.

Forex traders monitor this data as a timely indicator of the health of the US labor market. A lower number of claims suggests a stronger employment situation, which can signal robust economic growth. Strong employment conditions may influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions, potentially leading to interest rate adjustments. Changes in interest rate expectations can affect the valuation of the US Dollar against other currencies.

The market typically focuses on the headline figure for initial claims, though revisions to prior weeks’ data are also noted. As a weekly release, it offers frequent insights into labor market dynamics. This series provides an early look at employment trends, often preceding broader labor market reports. This release typically has a Medium impact rating.

How hard it hits, measured

528 releases · own feed
Typical EURUSD move
10pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
20pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
187pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
EURUSD5.0p6.5p10.0p20p
AUDUSD3.6p4.4p7.8p13p
GBPUSD5.4p8.6p13p24p
NZDUSD3.5p4.3p7.8p13p
USDCAD4.4p5.6p9.7p17p
USDCHF4.2p5.3p8.1p15p
USDJPY5.8p7.4p10p21p
XAUUSD16p21p29p66p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus EURUSD closed the hour higher in 92 of 168 cases · median +3.3p n=168 live
Miss below consensus EURUSD closed the hour lower in 95 of 179 cases · median -0.8p n=179 live
In line within the surprise band EURUSD closed the hour lower in 73 of 137 cases · median -1.5p n=137 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toEURUSD 1h
Oct 8, 2026197K190K197K199K-8.1pStory
Oct 8, 2026197K190K197K199K-8.1pStory
Oct 1, 2026197K192K197K198K-5.2p—
Sep 24, 2026196K189K196K198K-8.1p—
Sep 17, 2026206K199K206K—-7.5pStory
Sep 10, 2026206K211K206K207K-19pStory
Sep 3, 2026203K213K203K204K+13pStory
Aug 27, 2026206K216K206K207K+16p—
Aug 20, 2026209K206K209K212K+1.0p—
Aug 13, 2026199K213K199K200K+3.7p—
Aug 6, 2026197K196K197K198K-4.5p—
Jul 30, 2026187K194K187K188K+3.8p—
Jul 23, 2026208K215K208K209K-7.6p—
Jul 16, 2026215K222K215K216K-6.3p—
Jul 9, 2026215K210K215K217K+1.8p—
Jul 2, 2026215K209K215K216K——
Jun 25, 2026215K222K226K227K+25p—
Jun 18, 2026226K237K229K230K+0.7p—
Jun 11, 2026229K226K225K—+3.7p—
Jun 4, 2026225K207K215K212K-1.6p—
May 28, 2026215K203K209K210K+8.5p—
May 21, 2026209K208K211K212K-5.0p—
May 14, 2026211K209K200K199K-9.2p—
May 7, 2026200K204K189K190K+5.7p—

Showing the latest 24 of 200 tracked releases.

Reaction = EURUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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