US Unemployment Claims - ForexCracked
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United States · Employment

US Unemployment Claims USD

Medium impact Updated after every release
Next release Thu, Sep 10 12:30 UTC · consensus 205K · previous 206K  

What this release is

US Unemployment Claims measure the number of new applications for unemployment benefits filed by individuals in the United States. This weekly report is published by the US Department of Labor, providing a timely snapshot of job market health.

Forex traders monitor this data as a timely indicator of the health of the US labor market. A lower number of claims suggests a stronger employment situation, which can signal robust economic growth. Strong employment conditions may influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions, potentially leading to interest rate adjustments. Changes in interest rate expectations can affect the valuation of the US Dollar against other currencies.

The market typically focuses on the headline figure for initial claims, though revisions to prior weeks’ data are also noted. As a weekly release, it offers frequent insights into labor market dynamics. This series provides an early look at employment trends, often preceding broader labor market reports. This release typically has a Medium impact rating.

How hard it hits, measured

523 releases · own feed
Typical EURUSD move
10pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
20pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
187pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
EURUSD5.0p6.5p10p20p
AUDUSD3.6p4.5p7.8p13p
GBPUSD5.5p8.5p13p24p
NZDUSD3.5p4.3p7.8p13p
USDCAD4.4p5.6p9.7p17p
USDCHF4.2p5.4p8.1p16p
USDJPY5.8p7.4p10p21p
XAUUSD16p20p29p66p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus EURUSD closed the hour higher in 92 of 167 cases · median +3.4p n=167 live
Miss below consensus EURUSD closed the hour lower in 95 of 179 cases · median -0.8p n=179 live
In line within the surprise band EURUSD closed the hour lower in 69 of 133 cases · median -1.2p n=133 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toEURUSD 1h
Sep 3, 2026203K205K203K204K+13pStory
Aug 27, 2026206K216K206K207K+16p
Aug 20, 2026209K206K209K212K+1.0p
Aug 13, 2026199K213K199K200K+3.7p
Aug 6, 2026197K196K197K198K-4.5p
Jul 30, 2026187K194K187K188K+3.8p
Jul 23, 2026208K215K208K209K-7.6p
Jul 16, 2026215K222K215K216K-6.3p
Jul 9, 2026215K210K215K217K+1.8p
Jul 2, 2026215K209K215K216K
Jun 25, 2026215K222K226K227K+25p
Jun 18, 2026226K237K229K230K+0.7p
Jun 11, 2026229K226K225K+3.7p
Jun 4, 2026225K207K215K212K-1.6p
May 28, 2026215K203K209K210K+8.5p
May 21, 2026209K208K211K212K-5.0p
May 14, 2026211K209K200K199K-9.2p
May 7, 2026200K204K189K190K+5.7p
Apr 30, 2026189K210K214K215K-8.8p
Apr 23, 2026214K211K207K208K-0.1p
Apr 16, 2026207K212K219K218K-0.2p
Apr 9, 2026219K206K202K203K+3.5p
Apr 2, 2026202K211K210K211K+0.6p
Mar 26, 2026210K216K205K+9.4p

Showing the latest 24 of 200 tracked releases.

Reaction = EURUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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