ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI preview: Consensus anticipates slight moderation
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | — | — |
| USDJPY | — | — |
The United States is set to release its ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI data on October 5, 2026, at 14:00 UTC. Market consensus is currently forecasting a reading of 54.7, which would represent a slight moderation from the previous month’s figure of 55.4. This release is considered a high-impact event for the US Dollar, providing a key indicator of the health and sentiment within the crucial services sector of the US economy.
Historically, this release has been associated with significant price action across various currency pairs and gold. After past ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI releases, EURUSD has seen a median 1-hour move of 13 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 21+ pips. GBPUSD typically experiences a median 1-hour move of 18 pips, and 28+ pips for top-quarter events. USDCAD has registered a median 1-hour move of 13 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 26+ pips. USDJPY has a median 1-hour move of 14 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 32+ pips. For other USD pairs, AUDUSD and NZDUSD have seen median 1-hour moves of 10 pips and 11 pips respectively, while USDCHF has a median move of 11 pips. Gold, XAUUSD, has also reacted, with a median 1-hour move of 34 pips, and 71+ pips for top-quarter releases. These statistics are measured over 118 to 121 releases since 2015.
Recent prints of the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI have shown varied outcomes relative to forecasts. The September 2026 release came in at 55.4 against a forecast of 53.8, leading to a -9.0 pip 1-hour move on EURUSD. In August 2026, the actual figure was 54.1 compared to a forecast of 54.3, with EURUSD moving +9.4 pips. The July 2026 print was 54, resulting in a +3.9 pip EURUSD move.