ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI - ForexCracked
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United States

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI USD

High impact Updated after every release
Next release Mon, Oct 5 14:00 UTC · consensus 54.7 · previous 55.4  

What this release is

The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, also known as the Services PMI, is a monthly economic indicator published by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) at ismworld.org. It measures the health and activity levels of the United States’ non-manufacturing or services sector, providing insights into broader business conditions.

Forex traders closely monitor this release due to its high typical impact on USD valuations. A robust services sector often signals strong economic growth and potential inflationary pressures, which can influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions. Conversely, a weaker reading may suggest economic deceleration, potentially affecting interest rate expectations and the dollar.

Market participants typically focus on the headline composite index figure upon its monthly release. Significant deviations from consensus forecasts have historically led to notable shifts in market sentiment and USD exchange rates. The data offers a timely snapshot of the business sector’s performance.

How hard it hits, measured

121 releases · own feed
Typical EURUSD move
13pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
21pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
93pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
EURUSD6.1p8.5p13p21p
AUDUSD4.7p5.8p10p17p
GBPUSD6.4p11p18p28p
NZDUSD4.9p6.4p11p17p
USDCAD5.3p8.5p13p26p
USDCHF6.0p7.6p11p19p
USDJPY9.5p11p14p32p
XAUUSD19p25p34p71p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus EURUSD closed the hour lower in 26 of 36 cases · median -4.9p n=36 live
Miss below consensus EURUSD closed the hour higher in 22 of 39 cases · median +3.9p n=39 live
In line within the surprise band EURUSD closed the hour lower in 18 of 34 cases · median -2.3p n=34 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toEURUSD 1h
Sep 3, 202655.453.854.1-9.0p
Aug 5, 202654.154.354+9.4p
Jul 6, 20265454.5+3.9p
Jun 3, 202654.553.653.6+9.0p
May 5, 202653.654.654+8.3p
Apr 3, 20265454.856.156.1-14p
Mar 4, 202656.152.353.8+16p
Feb 4, 202653.851.854.453.8-19p
Jan 7, 202654.452.652.6-6.2p
Dec 3, 202552.652.452.4-2.8p
Nov 5, 202552.45050-7.7p
Oct 5, 2025505252
Sep 4, 20255252.450.150.1-15p
Aug 5, 202550.152.550.8+28p
Jul 3, 202550.852.249.9-20p
Jun 4, 202549.952.651.6+34p
May 5, 202551.652.650.8-15p
Apr 3, 202550.852.653.5+37p
Mar 5, 202553.552.252.8-4.2p
Feb 5, 202552.854.154.154-1.1p
Jan 7, 202554.15252.1-20p
Dec 4, 202452.152.156+35p
Nov 5, 20245651.654.9-4.1p
Oct 3, 202454.951.551.5-20p

Showing the latest 24 of 122 tracked releases.

Reaction = EURUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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