ISM Services PMI preview: consensus 55.2 against 54.9 prior

The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (USD) is due on 2026-11-04 at 15:00 UTC and carries a High impact rating. Consensus is 55.2, against a previous reading of 54.9, so the market is looking for a modest uptick in a services survey that has stayed in a narrow band above 50 in recent months. A print near consensus would leave that pattern intact, while a gap in either direction would stand out against it.

Historically this release moves prices. Across more than 119 releases since 2015, the median 1-hour move was 14 pips in EURUSD, 18 pips in GBPUSD, 14 pips in USDJPY and 13 pips in USDCAD. AUDUSD, NZDUSD and USDCHF each had a median of 11 pips. XAUUSD had a median of 34 pips. The top quarter of releases were larger: 21+ pips in EURUSD, 28+ pips in GBPUSD, 32+ pips in USDJPY, 26+ pips in USDCAD, 19+ pips in USDCHF, 17+ pips in both AUDUSD and NZDUSD, and 73+ pips in XAUUSD. These figures describe size only. We do not yet have enough live-captured releases to publish any statistics on direction.

Recent prints have been close to forecast. October came in at 54.9 against a forecast of 54.7, and EURUSD moved +17 pips over the following hour. September printed 55.4 against 53.8, and EURUSD moved -9.0 pips. August printed 54.1 against 54.3, with a move of +9.4 pips. The last three EURUSD moves in the sample before October ranged from +3.9 to +9.0 pips in absolute terms, so the October reaction was the largest of the recent six.