Ivey PMI comes in at 64.3 against 51.5 consensus

The Canadian Ivey PMI for September 2026 was released at 64.3, significantly exceeding the consensus forecast of 51.5. This print also marked an increase from the previous month’s figure of 55.1. The actual result represented a 24.9% surprise compared to the consensus expectation.

Following the release, the Canadian dollar showed varied movements against major currencies. Fifteen minutes after the data, CADJPY was up 17 pips, GBPCAD was up 9.4 pips, EURCAD was up 6.7 pips, AUDCAD was up 4.8 pips, USDCAD was up 4.0 pips, and NZDCAD was up 3.6 pips. CADCHF was down 0.8 pips. For context, the median 1-hour move for CADJPY after past releases has been 13 pips, for GBPCAD 16 pips, for EURCAD 14 pips, for AUDCAD 9 pips, for USDCAD 13 pips, for NZDCAD 8 pips, and for CADCHF 9 pips. The measured moves so far are generally smaller than the typical median 1-hour moves for these pairs, with CADJPY’s 17 pip move exceeding its median 13 pip 1-hour move.