Japan GDP q/q comes in at 0.4% against 0.3% consensus

Japan’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the quarter was reported at 0.4%, exceeding the consensus expectation of 0.3%. This figure also marked an increase from the previous quarter’s reading of 0.3%. The actual print represented a 33.3% positive surprise compared to the market consensus.

Following the release, JPY crosses initially showed JPY weakening, with USDJPY rising +12 pips and GBPJPY gaining +11 pips within 5 minutes. However, this initial move largely reversed by the 15-minute mark. USDJPY was down -9.2 pips and GBPJPY was down -17 pips at 15 minutes. Other JPY pairs, including AUDJPY, CADJPY, CHFJPY, EURJPY, and NZDJPY, followed a similar pattern of initial JPY weakness followed by a reversal to JPY strength. For context, the median 1-hour move for USDJPY after similar releases is 9 pips, and for GBPJPY it is 11 pips. Top-quarter releases typically see moves of 19 pips or more for USDJPY and 20 pips or more for GBPJPY. The measured moves so far are within or slightly above the median range for some pairs, but generally below the top-quarter thresholds.