GDP q/q - ForexCracked
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Japan

GDP q/q JPY

High impact Updated after every release
Next release Sun, Nov 15 23:50 UTC · consensus 0% · previous 0.4%  

What this release is

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the total value of all goods and services produced in Japan. The quarter-over-quarter change indicates the pace of economic expansion or contraction. This key economic indicator is published quarterly by The Cabinet Office of Japan, found at cao.go.jp.

Forex traders closely monitor GDP for insights into Japan’s economic health. Stronger economic growth, as indicated by a rising GDP, can suggest potential for higher interest rates or increased foreign investment, which may support the Japanese Yen. Conversely, weaker growth can lead to expectations of looser monetary policy from the Bank of Japan, potentially weighing on the currency.

The initial release of the quarterly GDP report typically draws significant market attention due to its High impact rating. Subsequent revisions, such as second or final estimates, are also watched closely. These revisions can prompt market reactions if they show a notable change from the preliminary figures, reflecting updated economic performance.

How hard it hits, measured

83 releases · own feed
Typical USDJPY move
9pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
19pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
64pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
USDJPY2.2p4.8p9.3p19p
AUDJPY2.0p5.0p8.2p17p
CADJPY1.5p4.6p7.3p15p
CHFJPY1.8p5.5p7.3p16p
EURJPY2.3p5.7p8.5p17p
GBPJPY3.0p6.2p11p21p
NZDJPY2.3p3.8p8.2p13p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus USDJPY closed the hour lower in 23 of 44 cases · median -2.0p n=44 live
Miss below consensus USDJPY closed the hour higher in 15 of 28 cases · median +1.8p n=28 live
In line within the surprise band Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=3 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toUSDJPY 1h
Sep 7, 20260.4%0.3%0.3%—-11p—
Aug 16, 20260.3%0.1%0.5%—-11p—
Jun 7, 20260.5%0.5%0.5%—-5.4p—
May 18, 20260.5%0.4%0.3%0.2%+12p—
Mar 9, 20260.3%0.1%0.1%—-21p—
Feb 15, 20260.1%-1.2%-0.6%-0.7%+22p—
Dec 7, 2025-0.6%—-0.4%—-16p—
Nov 16, 2025-0.4%1.1%0.5%—+2.4p—
Sep 7, 20250.5%0.3%0.3%—+2.6p—
Aug 14, 20250.3%0.1%0%0.1%-9.7p—
Jun 8, 20250%-0.2%-0.2%—+9.6p—
May 15, 2025-0.2%0.3%0.6%—-54p—
Mar 10, 20250.6%0.7%0.7%—-20p—
Feb 16, 20250.7%0.4%0.3%0.4%-47p—
Dec 8, 20240.3%0.2%0.2%—-19p—
Nov 14, 20240.2%0.4%0.7%0.5%+33p—
Sep 8, 20240.7%0.8%0.8%—+25p—
Aug 14, 20240.8%0%-0.5%-0.6%-0.5p—
Jun 9, 2024-0.5%-0.5%-0.5%—+3.4p—
May 15, 2024-0.5%-0.4%0.1%0%-25p—
Mar 10, 20240.1%-0.1%-0.1%—+3.9p—
Feb 14, 2024-0.1%0%-0.7%-0.8%-7.9p—
Dec 7, 2023-0.7%-0.5%-0.5%—-64p—
Nov 14, 2023-0.5%-0.2%1.2%1.1%+41p—

Showing the latest 24 of 83 tracked releases.

Reaction = USDJPY move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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