JPY GDP q/q preview: Consensus points to slower growth
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| USDJPY | — | — |
Japan’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) quarter over quarter data is scheduled for release on August 16 at 23:50 UTC. The market consensus forecasts a growth rate of 0.1%, a notable slowdown from the previous quarter’s 0.5%. This release carries a High impact rating, as GDP figures offer a broad measure of economic activity and are closely watched for insights into the health and direction of the Japanese economy.
Historically, this release has often led to significant price movements across JPY pairs. For instance, after past releases, GBPJPY has seen a median 1-hour move of 11 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 20+ pips. USDJPY has experienced a median 1-hour move of 9 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 19+ pips. Other pairs like EURJPY and AUDJPY have shown median 1-hour moves of 9 pips and 8 pips respectively, with top-quarter moves of 17+ pips. CADJPY and CHFJPY typically see median 1-hour moves of 7 pips, while NZDJPY has a median 1-hour move of 8 pips. These statistics are measured over 77 to 81 releases since 2015.
Recent releases have shown varied outcomes. The most recent print on June 8, 2026, matched the forecast at 0.5%, after which USDJPY moved -5.4 pips in one hour. Prior to that, on May 19, 2026, the actual came in at 0.5% against a forecast of 0.4%, with USDJPY seeing a +12 pips move. In March 2026, a 0.3% actual against a 0.1% forecast was followed by a -21 pips move in USDJPY. February 2026 saw a 0.1% actual against a -1.2% forecast, resulting in a +22 pips move for USDJPY. The December 2025 release was -0.6%, leading to a -16 pips move.