JPY Retail Sales m/m preview: Consensus points to slowdown
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| USDJPY | — | — |
Japan’s monthly Retail Sales data is scheduled for release on September 29, 2026, at 23:50 UTC. The market consensus anticipates a reading of 0.8% for the month. This would mark a notable decrease from the prior month’s figure of 2.4%. As a high impact release, this data provides insight into the health of Japanese consumer spending, a critical component of economic activity.
Historically, this release has generated significant price action across JPY pairs. Our data, spanning over 115 releases since 2015, shows a median 1-hour move of 7 pips for AUDJPY, EURJPY, NZDJPY, and USDJPY. CADJPY has seen a median move of 5 pips, while CHFJPY recorded 6 pips, and GBPJPY 8 pips. For top-quarter releases, moves have exceeded 11 pips for AUDJPY and NZDJPY, 9 pips for CADJPY, 12 pips for CHFJPY, 13 pips for EURJPY, 16 pips for GBPJPY, and 15 pips for USDJPY. Directional reliability statistics are not yet available for this event.
Recent Retail Sales prints have shown variability. The August 2026 release registered an actual of 2.4% against a forecast of -0.6%, with USDJPY moving -9.9 pips in the hour following. In July 2026, the actual was -4.1% compared to a forecast of -1.5%, leading to a +48 pip move for USDJPY. June 2026 saw an actual of 1.9% against a -1.2% forecast, with USDJPY moving -3.5 pips. May 2026 was 1.3% versus a -1.2% forecast, resulting in a +2.3 pip USDJPY move.