Retail Sales m/m - ForexCracked
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Japan

Retail Sales m/m JPY

High impact Updated after every release
Next release Tue, Sep 29 23:50 UTC · consensus 0.8% · previous 2.4%  

What this release is

Japan’s Retail Sales m/m report measures the percentage change in the total value of sales at retail stores across the country, compared to the previous month. This key indicator of the consumer sector is published monthly by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, meti.go.jp.

Forex traders closely monitor retail sales data as it provides insight into consumer spending, a significant component of Japan’s economic activity. Stronger retail sales can suggest robust economic growth and potential inflationary pressures. These factors can influence the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy outlook, which in turn affects the valuation of the Japanese Yen.

After past releases, market participants typically focus on the headline month over month figure. Revisions to previous months’ data are also observed for their implications on underlying trends. The Retail Sales m/m report generally carries a high typical impact rating on the JPY, reflecting its importance as a gauge of consumer health.

How hard it hits, measured

122 releases · own feed
Typical USDJPY move
7pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
15pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
48pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
USDJPY1.4p4.3p6.9p15p
AUDJPY2.1p4.0p6.9p11p
CADJPY1.1p3.8p5.4p9.3p
CHFJPY1.7p4.0p6.4p12p
EURJPY1.8p5.5p7.4p13p
GBPJPY2.2p6.7p8.4p16p
NZDJPY1.8p3.3p6.5p11p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus USDJPY closed the hour higher in 31 of 53 cases · median +2.3p n=53 live
Miss below consensus USDJPY closed the hour lower in 21 of 40 cases · median -1.3p n=40 live
In line within the surprise band Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=2 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toUSDJPY 1h
Aug 30, 20262.4%-0.6%-4.1%-3.9%-9.9p—
Jul 30, 2026-4.1%-1.5%1.9%1.7%+48p—
Jun 28, 20261.9%-1.2%1.3%2.1%-3.5p—
May 28, 20261.3%-1.2%1.3%1%+2.3p—
Apr 29, 20261.3%—-2%-2%+0.2p—
Mar 30, 2026-2%1.6%4.1%3%——
Feb 26, 20264.1%—-2%-2%-12p—
Jan 29, 2026-2%—0.6%0.7%+42p—
Dec 25, 20250.6%—1.6%1.6%+31p—
Nov 27, 20251.6%0.4%0.3%0%+16p—
Oct 30, 20250.3%0.3%-1.1%-0.9%+1.9p—
Sep 29, 2025-1.1%0%-1.6%—+21p—
Aug 28, 2025-1.6%-0.3%1%0.9%+0.4p—
Jul 30, 20251%-0.4%-0.2%-0.6%+3.1p—
Jun 26, 2025-0.2%1%0.5%0.7%+14p—
May 29, 20250.5%0%-1.2%—+8.2p—
Apr 29, 2025-1.2%-0.8%0.5%0.4%+2.4p—
Mar 30, 20250.5%1%0.5%1.2%-12p—
Feb 27, 20250.5%0.4%-0.7%-0.8%-33p—
Jan 30, 2025-0.7%0%1.8%1.9%+9.7p—
Dec 26, 20241.8%0.6%0.1%-0.2%+6.9p—
Nov 28, 20240.1%0%-2.3%-2.2%-31p—
Oct 30, 2024-2.3%-0.8%0.8%1%+14p—
Sep 29, 20240.8%1.1%0.2%—-39p—

Showing the latest 24 of 122 tracked releases.

Reaction = USDJPY move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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