Retail Sales m/m (JPY) comes in at -4.1% against -1.5% consensus

Japan’s Retail Sales m/m came in at -4.1%, significantly below the consensus expectation of -1.5%. This figure also marked a notable decline from the previous month’s reading of 1.9%. The actual print represented a substantial miss against market forecasts.

Following the release, JPY pairs showed varied movements over the initial 15 minutes. AUDJPY was up +5.6 pips, CADJPY up +2.0 pips, CHFJPY up +3.3 pips, EURJPY up +4.9 pips, GBPJPY up +6.0 pips, and USDJPY up +3.5 pips. NZDJPY moved down -3.1 pips. These initial moves are generally smaller than the typical median 1-hour moves observed after past releases, which range from 5 pips for CADJPY to 8 pips for GBPJPY. Directional reliability statistics are not yet available for this series.