Median CPI y/y (CAD) preview: Inflation gauge eyed
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| USDCAD | — | — |
Canada’s Median CPI year over year data is scheduled for release on August 17 at 12:30 UTC. This high-impact inflation gauge is closely watched for its implications on monetary policy. Market consensus anticipates a reading of 2.0%, a slight increase from the previous month’s 1.9%.
Historically, this release has often led to significant price action in CAD pairs. For example, after past releases, USDCAD has seen a median 1-hour move of 15 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 33+ pips. EURCAD has experienced a median 1-hour move of 22 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 36+ pips. GBPCAD has shown a median 1-hour move of 24 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 46+ pips. Other pairs like AUDCAD and NZDCAD have also reacted, with median 1-hour moves of 12 pips and 13 pips respectively. These figures are based on 113 to 115 releases since 2015.
Recent Median CPI prints have shown varied outcomes relative to forecasts. The July 2026 release came in at 1.9% against a forecast of 2.1%, followed by a +4.1 pip USDCAD 1-hour move. In June 2026, the actual was 2.1% versus a 2.2% forecast, with USDCAD moving +22 pips. The May 2026 print was 2.1% against a 2.2% forecast, leading to a +13 pip USDCAD 1-hour move.