Michigan Consumer Expectations comes in at 50.6 against 56.5 consensus

The University of Michigan Consumer Expectations index for August 2026 was released today at 50.6. This figure came in notably below the market consensus expectation of 56.5. The actual print also represented a decline from the previous month’s reading of 55.4. The surprise against consensus was -10.4%.

Following the release, initial market reaction over the first 15 minutes showed varied movements across major currency pairs and gold. AUDUSD moved by -0.6 pips, EURUSD by -0.1 pips, and GBPUSD by -0.5 pips. NZDUSD saw a +0.3 pip move. In USD crosses, USDCAD moved by +5.4 pips, USDCHF by +3.5 pips, and USDJPY by +8.6 pips. Gold, XAUUSD, moved by +48 pips. These measured moves over 15 minutes are generally smaller than the median 1-hour moves observed after past releases for most pairs, such as the median 1-hour move of 8 pips for AUDUSD, 12 pips for EURUSD, 16 pips for GBPUSD, 7 pips for NZDUSD, 13 pips for USDCAD, 9 pips for USDCHF, and 12 pips for USDJPY. For XAUUSD, the +48 pip move is larger than its median 1-hour move of 30 pips.