Michigan Consumer Expectations - ForexCracked
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United States

Michigan Consumer Expectations USD

Medium impact Updated after every release
Next release Fri, Sep 11 14:00 UTC · consensus 51.2 · previous 51.5  

What this release is

The Michigan Consumer Expectations report, published monthly by the University of Michigan, surveys consumers about their anticipated financial situation and the broader economic outlook. This release provides insights into the consumer sector, reflecting sentiment on future income, employment, and business conditions.

Forex traders monitor these expectations as they can signal future consumer spending patterns. Stronger consumer confidence and expectations for improvement may lead to increased spending, potentially contributing to economic growth and inflation. These trends can influence the central bank’s monetary policy decisions, which in turn can affect the value of the US Dollar.

After past releases, the market has typically reacted to the headline figures from this monthly report. While it carries a Medium typical impact rating, its influence can vary depending on prevailing economic conditions and other concurrent data releases. Revisions to prior readings, when present, are also noted by market participants.

How hard it hits, measured

244 releases · own feed
Typical EURUSD move
12pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
20pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
57pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
EURUSD3.9p6.5p12p20p
AUDUSD3.0p5.4p8.3p16p
GBPUSD5.0p7.5p16p29p
NZDUSD2.7p4.6p7.3p12p
USDCAD4.5p7.0p13p24p
USDCHF3.1p5.0p8.7p17p
USDJPY4.4p7.1p12p22p
XAUUSD13p21p30p67p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus EURUSD closed the hour higher in 31 of 61 cases · median +1.7p n=61 live
Miss below consensus EURUSD closed the hour higher in 34 of 65 cases · median +0.2p n=65 live
In line within the surprise band EURUSD closed the hour higher in 46 of 91 cases · median 0.0p n=91 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toEURUSD 1h
Aug 28, 202651.550.650.6-26p
Aug 14, 202650.656.555.4+0.6p
Jul 31, 202655.45454+37p
Jul 17, 20265451.850.7+4.2p
Jun 26, 202650.749.349.3-31p
Jun 12, 202649.345.844.1+4.0p
May 22, 202644.148.548.5-5.8p
May 8, 202648.545.648.1-4.5p
Apr 24, 202648.146.146.1-0.2p
Apr 10, 202646.151.451.7+0.2p
Mar 27, 202651.754.154.1+4.8p
Mar 13, 202654.155.156.6-22p
Feb 20, 202656.656.656.6+20p
Feb 6, 202656.655.157-1.5p
Jan 23, 2026575555+12p
Jan 9, 20265552.654.6+4.3p
Dec 19, 202554.65555-17p
Dec 5, 20255552.951-1.7p
Nov 21, 2025514949-11p
Nov 7, 20254947.150.3-1.1p
Oct 24, 202550.351.251.2-0.5p
Oct 10, 202551.249.851.7+9.9p
Sep 26, 202551.751.851.8+7.6p
Sep 12, 202551.855.155.9+13p

Showing the latest 24 of 200 tracked releases.

Reaction = EURUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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