MNI Chicago Business Barometer preview: Consensus points to slight dip from previous
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | — | — |
| USDJPY | — | — |
The MNI Chicago Business Barometer, a key indicator for the US economy, is scheduled for release on 2026-07-31 at 13:45 UTC. Market consensus anticipates a reading of 56.5. This follows the previous month’s actual reading of 56.7. This release is rated as having a High impact on the market, reflecting its significance in gauging regional business activity and broader economic sentiment.
Historically, this release has shown notable price action across major currency pairs. Our data, measured over 115-120 releases since 2015, indicates significant volatility. For EURUSD, the median 1-hour move has been 11 pips, with top-quarter releases seeing moves of 17+ pips. GBPUSD has seen a median 1-hour move of 14 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 26+ pips. USDCAD typically experiences a median 1-hour move of 16 pips, with 23+ pips on top-quarter releases. XAUUSD has recorded a median 1-hour move of 31 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 65+ pips. Other pairs like AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCHF, and USDJPY have also shown median 1-hour moves ranging from 9 to 10 pips, with top-quarter moves between 15 and 20+ pips. Direction-reliability statistics are not yet available for this release.
Recent prints for the MNI Chicago Business Barometer have varied. The June 2026 release saw an actual reading of 56.7 against a forecast of 45.5, with EURUSD moving +18 pips in the hour following. In May 2026, the actual was 62.7 (forecast 44), and EURUSD moved -3.2 pips. April 2026 recorded an actual of 49.2 (forecast 50.1), with EURUSD moving +23 pips.