Non-Farm Payrolls comes in at -23K against 41K consensus

Non-Farm Payrolls for August 2026 came in significantly below expectations. The actual figure reported was a loss of 23,000 jobs, a sharp contrast to the consensus forecast of an increase of 41,000 jobs. This represents a surprise of -156.1% against the consensus. The previous month’s figure was an increase of 57,000 jobs.

Following the release, the US Dollar weakened across major pairs. AUDUSD rose 33 pips, EURUSD gained 44 pips, and GBPUSD advanced 50 pips within 15 minutes. NZDUSD was up 32 pips. Conversely, USDCAD fell 45 pips, USDCHF dropped 41 pips, and USDJPY declined 106 pips. Gold, XAUUSD, saw a significant rise of 535 pips. For context, the 15-minute moves for EURUSD and GBPUSD were larger than their respective top-quarter historical 1-hour moves of 41 pips and 47 pips. USDJPY’s 106 pip drop was also well above its top-quarter historical 1-hour move of 42 pips. XAUUSD’s 535 pip gain was substantially larger than its top-quarter historical 1-hour move of 123 pips.