Non-Farm Payrolls - ForexCracked
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United States · Employment

Non-Farm Payrolls USD

High impact Updated after every release
Next release Fri, Oct 2 12:30 UTC · consensus 52K · previous 162K  

What this release is

The Non-Farm Payrolls report measures the total number of paid workers in the United States, excluding agricultural employees, government employees, private household employees, and non-profit organization employees. This key employment statistic is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, providing a broad overview of job creation and labor market conditions.

Forex traders closely monitor Non-Farm Payrolls due to its High typical impact on the U.S. Dollar. Robust job growth often indicates a strengthening economy, which can influence the Federal Reserve’s stance on monetary policy. Expectations for higher interest rates, or changes in the pace of rate adjustments, can strengthen the U.S. Dollar, while weaker employment data may suggest the opposite.

Upon release, market attention typically centers on the headline change in employment. However, revisions to prior months’ data are also closely scrutinized, as they can alter the perception of underlying labor market trends. The release of Non-Farm Payrolls frequently leads to immediate and notable volatility in U.S. Dollar currency pairs, as traders react to the new information.

How hard it hits, measured

127 releases · own feed
Typical EURUSD move
21pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
41pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
175pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
EURUSD19p17p21p41p
AUDUSD13p14p16p27p
GBPUSD16p19p22p49p
NZDUSD14p13p16p28p
USDCAD21p21p26p42p
USDCHF15p15p17p32p
USDJPY20p22p27p47p
XAUUSD53p51p56p129p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus EURUSD closed the hour lower in 45 of 74 cases · median -8.3p n=74 live
Miss below consensus EURUSD closed the hour higher in 22 of 36 cases · median +7.3p n=36 live
In line within the surprise band Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=1 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toEURUSD 1h
Sep 4, 2026162K55K-23K21K-10pStory
Sep 4, 2026162K-10p
Aug 7, 2026-23K41K57K20K+42p
Aug 7, 2026-23K+42p
Jul 2, 202657K43K172K129K
Jun 5, 2026172K77K115K179K-50p
May 8, 2026115K90K178K185K+14p
Apr 3, 2026178K-6K-92K-133K-11p
Mar 6, 2026-92K79K130K126K-6.4p
Feb 11, 2026130K89K50K48K-36p
Jan 9, 202650K100K64K56K-5.0p
Dec 16, 202564K120K119K-105K+14p
Nov 20, 202541K-140K+30p
Nov 20, 2025119K84K22K-4K+1.2p
Sep 5, 202522K129K73K79K+22p
Aug 1, 202573K132K147K14K+175p
Jul 3, 2025147K130K139K144K-22p
Jun 6, 2025139K131K177K147K-31p
May 2, 2025177K126K228K185K+14p
Apr 4, 2025228K139K151K117K-53p
Mar 7, 2025151K193K143K125K+9.5p
Feb 7, 2025143K208K256K307K+7.4p
Jan 10, 2025256K213K227K212K-45p
Dec 6, 2024227K176K12K36K-1.5p

Showing the latest 24 of 127 tracked releases.

Reaction = EURUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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