Non-Farm Payrolls preview: Market anticipates significant slowdown in job creation
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | — | — |
| USDJPY | — | — |
The Non-Farm Payrolls report for October 2, 2026, is scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC. Market consensus anticipates 89K new jobs for the period, a notable decrease from the previous reading of 162K. This release is rated as high impact for the US Dollar, and traders will closely monitor whether the actual figure aligns with, or deviates significantly from, the expected slowdown in job creation.
Historically, Non-Farm Payrolls releases have generated substantial market movement. After past releases, EURUSD has seen a median 1-hour move of 21 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 41+ pips over 124 observations since 2015. GBPUSD has recorded a median 1-hour move of 22 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 48+ pips over 124 observations. USDCAD typically experiences a median 1-hour move of 26 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 41+ pips over 124 observations. For gold, XAUUSD, the median 1-hour move has been 55 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 126+ pips over 121 observations. The direction reliability for EURUSD after these events stands at 60% based on live sample data.
Recent Non-Farm Payrolls prints show varied outcomes relative to forecasts. The September 2026 release reported 162K jobs against a 41K forecast, resulting in a -10 pips 1-hour move for EURUSD. In August 2026, the actual was -23K compared to a 41K forecast, leading to a +42 pips 1-hour move for EURUSD. The June 2026 release saw 172K jobs against a 77K forecast, with EURUSD moving -50 pips in the hour following the announcement.