Non-Farm Payrolls comes in at 29K against 89K consensus

Non-Farm Payrolls for October 2026 came in significantly below expectations. The US economy added 29,000 jobs, a substantial miss compared to the consensus forecast of 89,000. This figure also represents a sharp decline from the previous month’s revised total of 162,000 jobs. The actual print was 67.4% lower than the consensus estimate, indicating a notable slowdown in job creation.

Following the release, the US Dollar weakened against major currencies. EURUSD rose 21 pips an hour after the release, which is close to its median 1-hour move of 21 pips after past releases. GBPUSD gained 21 pips, also near its median of 22 pips. AUDUSD saw a 23-pip increase, slightly above its median of 16 pips. USDJPY fell 15 pips, a smaller move compared to its median 1-hour move of 26 pips. XAUUSD initially surged, ending up 88 pips after one hour, which is above its median 1-hour move of 56 pips. The market reaction suggests a broad USD depreciation, though for some pairs, the magnitude of the move was not exceptional compared to historical NFP releases.