Non-Farm Payrolls preview: Consensus points to increased hiring
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | — | — |
| USDJPY | — | — |
The United States Non-Farm Payrolls report is scheduled for release on 2026-08-07 at 12:30 UTC. Market consensus anticipates a gain of 85K jobs for the month. This would represent an increase from the previous reading of 57K. This release is rated as a high impact event for the US Dollar and broader financial markets, often influencing expectations for monetary policy.
Historically, the Non-Farm Payrolls release has been associated with notable price volatility. After past releases, EURUSD has seen a median 1-hour move of 21 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 41+ pips over 122 releases since 2015. GBPUSD has shown a median 1-hour move of 22 pips, with top-quarter releases exceeding 47+ pips. For USDJPY, the median 1-hour move was 26 pips, and top-quarter events saw moves of 42+ pips. XAUUSD, or gold, has also reacted significantly, with a median 1-hour move of 54 pips, and top-quarter moves reaching 123+ pips over 119 releases. The direction reliability for EURUSD after these events has been observed at 60% based on a live sample.
Recent Non-Farm Payrolls figures have shown varied outcomes relative to forecasts. The most recent print on July 2, 2026, reported an actual of 57K against a forecast of 43K. Prior to that, on June 5, 2026, the actual was 172K compared to a forecast of 77K, which was followed by a -50 pip 1-hour move in EURUSD. The May 8, 2026, release showed 115K actual versus 90K forecast, with EURUSD moving +14 pips in the hour following.