Non-Farm Payrolls preview: Market expects 55K jobs after previous -23K
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | — | — |
| USDJPY | — | — |
The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report is scheduled for release on September 4, 2026, at 12:30 UTC. Market consensus anticipates 55K new jobs, a notable shift from the previous reading of -23K. This high-impact release will be closely watched for signs of labor market health, particularly given the recent contraction.
Historically, this release has generated significant market volatility across major currency pairs and gold. For EURUSD, the median 1-hour move after past releases has been 22 pips, with top-quarter events seeing moves of 42+ pips. USDJPY has seen a median 1-hour move of 26 pips, with top-quarter moves exceeding 43+ pips. Gold (XAUUSD) typically experiences even larger shifts, with a median 1-hour move of 55 pips and top-quarter moves over 126+ pips. These figures are based on 121 to 125 releases since 2015. The direction reliability for EURUSD after these events stands at 60%.
Recent Non-Farm Payrolls prints have shown varied outcomes. The August 2026 release reported an actual of -23K, leading to a +42 pip 1-hour move in EURUSD. Prior to that, the July 2026 actual was 57K against a forecast of 43K. The June 2026 report showed 172K new jobs, significantly above the 77K forecast, resulting in a -50 pip 1-hour move for EURUSD.