Nonfarm Payrolls preview: consensus 65K after 29K last month
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | — | — |
| USDJPY | — | — |
Nonfarm Payrolls for the US is due on 2026-11-06 at 13:30 UTC, and the market consensus sits at 65K against a previous reading of 29K. The forecast points to a larger gain than last month’s print, which came in well under the 52K that was expected at the time. With the release rated High impact, it is one of the main scheduled data points for USD pairs this week.
Our price feed shows how hard this release has hit in the past. The median 1-hour move on EURUSD is 21 pips, and the top quarter of releases moved 41+ pips. GBPUSD has a median of 22 pips and a top-quarter level of 48+ pips. USDJPY shows 26 pips and 43+ pips, and USDCAD shows 26 pips and 41+ pips. The smaller movers are AUDUSD and NZDUSD at a median of 16 pips each, and USDCHF at 17 pips. XAUUSD has a median of 56 pips, with the top quarter at 126+ pips. These figures cover roughly 122 to 126 releases per pair since 2015. On EURUSD, the direction of the first-hour move has matched a single consistent pattern only 61% of the time in our live sample, so the size of a move has been easier to describe than its direction.
Recent prints have varied widely against forecast. October came in at 29K versus 52K expected, followed by +21 pips on EURUSD in the first hour. September printed 162K against 41K, and EURUSD moved -10 pips. August showed -23K versus 41K, with a +42 pip move. June’s 172K against 77K was followed by -50 pips, and May’s 115K against 90K by +14 pips.