NZ CPI q/q preview: Inflation data in focus
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| NZDUSD | — | — |
New Zealand’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the third quarter is scheduled for release on October 21, 2026, at 21:45 UTC. The market consensus anticipates a 0.8% quarter-over-quarter increase, a notable deceleration from the previous reading of 1.5%. This high-impact release is closely watched by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) for its implications on monetary policy, with inflation trends being a primary driver of interest rate decisions.
Historically, this release has generated significant volatility for NZD pairs. For instance, NZDUSD has seen a median 1-hour move of 12 pips after past releases, with top-quarter events moving 25+ pips over 41 releases since 2015. Other crosses tend to exhibit larger reactions, with EURNZD showing a median 1-hour move of 38 pips and top-quarter releases moving 69+ pips. GBPNZD has a median 1-hour move of 41 pips, with top-quarter events reaching 72+ pips. The direction reliability on NZDUSD after these releases stands at 48%.
Recent CPI prints have shown varied outcomes. The July 2026 release recorded an actual 1.5% against a forecast of 0.6%, leading to a +14 pips move in NZDUSD. In April 2026, the actual 0.9% matched the forecast 0.9%, with NZDUSD moving +18 pips. Conversely, the January 2026 release saw an actual 0.6% against a forecast of 0.9%, resulting in a +4.4 pips move for NZDUSD.