Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index comes in at 41.4 against 10.3 consensus

The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for July 2026 printed at 41.4, significantly exceeding the consensus forecast of 10.3. This compares to the previous month’s reading of 10.3, marking a 301.9% surprise above expectations.

Following the release, market reactions were observed. AUDUSD moved -5.7 pips 15 minutes after the release, a relatively small move compared to its median 1-hour move of 7 pips after past releases. EURUSD moved -12 pips, exceeding its median 1-hour move of 9 pips but remaining below its top-quarter move of 19+ pips. GBPUSD moved -3.5 pips, a relatively small move compared to its median 1-hour move of 12 pips. NZDUSD moved -8.1 pips, exceeding its median 1-hour move of 7 pips. USDCAD moved -0.2 pips, a relatively small move compared to its median 1-hour move of 10 pips. USDCHF moved +9.4 pips, exceeding its median 1-hour move of 7 pips. USDJPY moved +9.3 pips, remaining below its median 1-hour move of 11 pips. XAUUSD moved -240 pips, a significant move compared to its median 1-hour move of 28 pips and well above its top-quarter move of 59+ pips.