Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index - ForexCracked
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United States

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index USD

High impact Updated after every release
Next release Thu, Oct 15 12:30 UTC · consensus 33.5 · previous 37.8  

What this release is

The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index is a monthly survey that gauges manufacturing sector activity within the Third Federal Reserve District. This business sector indicator is published by philadelphiafed.org, offering a regional perspective on economic conditions.

Forex traders monitor this index for its potential influence on the US dollar. Robust manufacturing data can suggest overall economic strength, which may inform the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook. Shifts in interest rate expectations, often prompted by economic indicators, can impact the US dollar’s value relative to other currencies.

The market typically focuses on the headline number of this monthly release. Revisions to previous data points are also observed, as they can adjust the perceived economic trajectory. After past releases, this series has consistently demonstrated a high typical impact on market sentiment, reflecting its importance in assessing economic momentum.

How hard it hits, measured

123 releases · own feed
Typical EURUSD move
9pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
19pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
90pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
EURUSD5.5p7.5p8.8p19p
AUDUSD3.3p4.5p7.1p11p
GBPUSD5.8p10p12p22p
NZDUSD3.6p4.9p7.2p11p
USDCAD4.2p5.3p10p17p
USDCHF4.7p6.6p7.2p13p
USDJPY6.8p8.7p11p23p
XAUUSD20p21p29p62p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus EURUSD closed the hour lower in 33 of 53 cases · median -4.5p n=53 live
Miss below consensus EURUSD closed the hour higher in 31 of 56 cases · median +2.6p n=56 live
In line within the surprise band Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=3 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toEURUSD 1h
Sep 17, 202637.819.547.4—-7.5p—
Aug 20, 202647.413.741.4—+1.0p—
Jul 16, 202641.410.310.3—-6.3p—
Jun 18, 202610.33-0.4—+0.7p—
May 21, 2026-0.42.926.7—-5.0p—
Apr 16, 202626.73.318.1—-0.2p—
Mar 19, 202618.1316.3—+16p—
Feb 19, 202616.3312.6—-11p—
Jan 15, 202612.6—-10.2-8.8-13p—
Dec 18, 2025-10.23.6-1.7—+10p—
Nov 20, 2025-1.73.9-12.8—+30p—
Oct 16, 2025-12.84.823.2—+4.2p—
Sep 18, 202523.23.7-0.3—-34p—
Aug 21, 2025-0.33.715.9—+5.8p—
Jul 17, 202515.93.4-4—+12p—
Jun 20, 2025-45.1-4—+2.6p—
May 15, 2025-46.9-26.4—+11p—
Apr 17, 2025-26.47.212.5—+23p—
Mar 20, 202512.534.618.1—-19p—
Feb 20, 202518.128.144.3—+4.1p—
Jan 16, 202544.31-16.4-10.9+8.6p—
Dec 19, 2024-16.46.4-5.5—-7.1p—
Nov 21, 2024-5.57.110.3—+6.9p—
Oct 17, 202410.36.71.7—-51p—

Showing the latest 24 of 123 tracked releases.

Reaction = EURUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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