Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index preview: Consensus points to a significant drop
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | — | — |
| USDJPY | — | — |
The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index is scheduled for release on September 17, 2026, at 12:30 UTC. Market consensus anticipates a reading of 19.5, a notable decrease from the prior month’s strong actual print of 47.4. This release is considered to have a high impact on the market, providing insight into manufacturing activity in the Federal Reserve’s Third District.
Historically, this release has prompted significant price action across major currency pairs. After past releases, EURUSD has seen a median 1-hour move of 9 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 19+ pips. GBPUSD has experienced a median 1-hour move of 12 pips, and top-quarter releases moved 22+ pips. For USDJPY, the median 1-hour move was 11 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 22+ pips. Gold, XAUUSD, has shown a median 1-hour move of 29 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 61+ pips. These figures are measured over 118 to 122 releases since 2015.
Recent prints of the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index have shown variability. The August 2026 release came in at 47.4, significantly above its forecast of 13.7. In July 2026, the actual was 41.4 against a forecast of 10.3. The March 2026 release registered 18.1 against a forecast of 3, and after that release, EURUSD saw a 1-hour move of +16 pips.