Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index preview: Manufacturing sentiment in focus

The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index is scheduled for release on August 20, 2026 at 12:30 UTC. This high impact event will offer insights into the health of the manufacturing sector in the Federal Reserve’s Third District. The market consensus forecast is 13.7, a notable decrease from the previous reading of 41.4. This significant expected drop suggests analysts anticipate a slowdown in regional factory activity.

Historically, this release has generated significant market movement. Our data shows that after past Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index releases, AUDUSD has seen a median 1-hour move of 7 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 11+ pips. EURUSD has experienced a median 1-hour move of 9 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 19+ pips. GBPUSD has a median 1-hour move of 12 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 23+ pips. NZDUSD has seen a median 1-hour move of 7 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 11+ pips. USDCAD has a median 1-hour move of 10 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 17+ pips. USDCHF has a median 1-hour move of 7 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 14+ pips. USDJPY has a median 1-hour move of 11 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 22+ pips. XAUUSD has recorded a median 1-hour move of 29 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 60+ pips. These figures are based on 117 to 121 releases measured since 2015.

Recent prints for the index show varied results. The July 2026 release came in at 41.4 against a forecast of 10.3. The June 2026 reading was 10.3 compared to a forecast of 3. In May 2026, the actual figure was -0.4 against a forecast of 2.9. The March 2026 release saw an actual 18.1 versus a forecast of 3, which was followed by a +16 pips 1-hour move in EURUSD. The February 2026 release was 16.3 against a forecast of 3, with EURUSD moving -11 pips in the hour following.