RBA Interest Rate Decision preview: consensus 4.85% against 4.60% previous

The Reserve Bank of Australia announces its interest rate decision at 01:30 UTC on 3 November 2026. Consensus sits at 4.85%, against a previous reading of 4.60%. That gap of 25 basis points means the market is positioned for a change from the last print, which is why this High impact release draws attention across AUD pairs. The rate level shapes AUD yield comparisons, so the decision and any change from consensus are what traders will be watching.

Here is how hard past decisions have hit, based on our own price feed over releases since 2015. The median 1-hour move on AUDUSD is 15 pips, and the top quarter of releases moved 24+ pips (105 releases). AUDJPY has a median of 17 pips, with the top quarter at 33+ pips (105 releases). AUDCAD shows 17 pips and 30+ pips (105 releases). AUDCHF shows 14 pips and 22+ pips (105 releases). AUDNZD shows 18 pips and 35+ pips (106 releases). The AUD cross pairs with the largest reactions are EURAUD, with a median of 34 pips and a top quarter of 57+ pips (105 releases), and GBPAUD, with a median of 36 pips and a top quarter of 66+ pips (106 releases). These figures describe size only, not direction.

Recent prints give a mixed picture on AUDUSD. The 29 September decision came in at 4.6%, matching the 4.60% forecast, and AUDUSD moved +6.4 pips over the next hour. On 11 August the rate was 4.35%, in line with the forecast, and the pair moved -17 pips. Earlier in 2026, 1-hour moves were -0.7 pips on 16 June, -14 pips on 5 May, +29 pips on 17 March and -9.6 pips on 3 February. After past releases, the size of the reaction has varied widely from one decision to the next.