RBNZ Rate Decision preview: Market expects a hike to 3.00%
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| NZDUSD | — | — |
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is scheduled to announce its latest Interest Rate Decision on October 28, 2026, at 01:00 UTC. Market consensus forecasts a rate hike, expecting the Official Cash Rate to increase from its previous reading of 2.75% to 3.00%. This anticipated move marks a significant shift from the prior unchanged rate and is considered a high-impact event for the New Zealand Dollar.
Historically, RBNZ Interest Rate Decisions have generated substantial price movements across NZD crosses. Over 69 releases since 2015, AUDNZD has seen a median 1-hour move of 43 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 62+ pips. EURNZD has recorded a median 1-hour move of 72 pips over 68 releases, with top-quarter events exceeding 122+ pips. Similarly, GBPNZD has shown a median 1-hour move of 90 pips over 68 releases, with top-quarter moves of 136+ pips. Other pairs also show notable volatility, including NZDCAD with a median 37 pips move, NZDCHF with 27 pips, NZDJPY with 36 pips, and NZDUSD with a median 29 pips move, all measured over similar release counts.
Recent RBNZ rate announcements have seen varying reactions in NZDUSD. The September 2, 2026, release, which saw the rate hold at 2.75% as forecast, was followed by a -37 pips 1-hour move in NZDUSD. The July 8, 2026, decision, where the rate was 2.5% as forecast, saw a +13 pips move. Earlier in 2026, the May 27 release, with an actual rate of 2.25%, resulted in a +29 pips move for NZDUSD.