Retail Control m/m comes in at 1.4% against 0.9% consensus

Retail Control m/m for the United States was reported at 1.4% for September, significantly exceeding the consensus expectation of 0.9%. This figure represents a strong rebound from the previous month’s reading of -0.4%. The actual print came in 55.6% higher than the market’s forecast.

Following the release, market reactions were observed across major pairs. EURUSD moved up 3.4 pips after 5 minutes and 5.5 pips after 15 minutes. GBPUSD gained 4.4 pips at 5 minutes and 7.7 pips at 15 minutes. XAUUSD saw a notable increase of 14 pips at 5 minutes and 44 pips at 15 minutes. Other pairs showed more limited movement. AUDUSD was down 0.6 pips after 15 minutes, NZDUSD was down 1.5 pips, USDCAD was up 0.9 pips, USDCHF was down 1.9 pips, and USDJPY was down 0.1 pips. For most pairs, these initial moves are smaller than their respective median 1-hour moves observed after past releases, such as EURUSD’s median 1-hour move of 13 pips or GBPUSD’s median 1-hour move of 15 pips. XAUUSD’s 44 pip move after 15 minutes is approaching its median 1-hour move of 35 pips.