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United States

Retail Control m/m USD

Medium impact Updated after every release
Next release Tue, Nov 17 13:30 UTC · consensus 0.3% · previous 0.1%  

What this release is

The Retail Control Group report, published monthly by census.gov, measures the change in sales at retail and food services establishments. This specific subset of retail sales excludes categories such as motor vehicles, gasoline, and building materials, providing a more stable indicator of underlying consumer spending trends. It is a key component used in calculating the national gross domestic product within the consumer sector.

Forex traders monitor this release closely because consumer spending is a significant driver of economic activity. Robust spending figures can signal a healthy economy, potentially influencing the central bank’s monetary policy decisions. Changes in policy expectations, particularly regarding interest rates, can affect the valuation of the US Dollar.

Market participants typically focus on the headline month over month percentage change upon release. Significant deviations from expectations, either positive or negative, can lead to immediate market adjustments. Revisions to previous months’ data are also observed for their implications on the overall trend. The report’s monthly cadence provides regular insights into consumer demand.

How hard it hits, measured

124 releases · own feed
Typical EURUSD move
13pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
27pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
68pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
EURUSD8.0p8.7p13p27p
AUDUSD5.9p5.5p8.8p16p
GBPUSD9.0p9.8p15p26p
NZDUSD6.1p6.2p8.7p16p
USDCAD5.9p7.8p12p21p
USDCHF6.7p7.9p10p19p
USDJPY12p13p15p29p
XAUUSD23p28p35p59p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus EURUSD closed the hour lower in 38 of 61 cases · median -6.6p n=61 live
Miss below consensus EURUSD closed the hour higher in 28 of 45 cases · median +8.0p n=45 live
In line within the surprise band Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=7 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toEURUSD 1h
Oct 15, 20260.1%0.5%1.4%1.2%+5.8p—
Sep 16, 20261.4%0.9%-0.4%—+4.8p—
Aug 14, 2026-0.4%-0.1%0.5%0.4%-0.8p—
Jul 16, 20260.5%0.1%0.7%0.8%-6.3p—
Jun 17, 20260.7%-0.2%0.5%—+2.2p—
May 14, 20260.5%0%0.7%0.8%-9.2p—
Apr 21, 20260.7%0.5%0.5%0.6%+6.8p—
Apr 1, 20260.5%0.5%0.3%0.2%+13p—
Mar 6, 20260.3%0.7%-0.1%0%-6.4p—
Feb 10, 2026-0.1%0.1%0.4%0.2%+29p—
Jan 14, 20260.4%-0.1%0.8%0.6%+7.4p—
Dec 16, 20250.8%0.4%-0.1%—+14p—
Nov 25, 2025-0.1%-0.3%0.7%0.6%+21p—
Sep 16, 20250.7%-0.2%0.5%—+21p—
Aug 15, 20250.5%-0.6%0.5%0.8%+6.6p—
Jul 17, 20250.5%0.1%0.4%0.2%+12p—
Jun 17, 20250.4%0.4%-0.2%-0.1%-6.2p—
May 15, 2025-0.2%0%0.4%0.5%+11p—
Apr 16, 20250.4%0.3%1%1.3%+13p—
Mar 17, 20251%0%-0.8%-1%+1.8p—
Feb 14, 2025-0.8%0.5%0.7%0.8%+16p—
Jan 16, 20250.7%1.1%0.4%—+8.6p—
Dec 17, 20240.4%0.9%-0.1%—+12p—
Nov 15, 2024-0.1%0.5%0.7%1.2%-39p—

Showing the latest 24 of 124 tracked releases.

Reaction = EURUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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