Retail Sales m/m (CAD) comes in at 1% against 0.2% consensus

Canadian Retail Sales m/m for July 2026 came in at 1%, significantly exceeding the consensus expectation of 0.2%. This figure also represents an increase from the previous month’s reading of 0.5%. The actual print showed a 400.0% surprise compared to the consensus forecast.

Following the release, the Canadian dollar showed varied reactions across major pairs within the first 15 minutes. USDCAD moved up 6.1 pips, while NZDCAD moved down 6.8 pips and AUDCAD moved down 6.2 pips. CADJPY moved up 4.5 pips. Other pairs saw smaller movements, with EURCAD down 1.7 pips, GBPCAD down 1.5 pips, and CADCHF down 0.2 pips. These initial movements are generally small when compared to the typical median 1-hour moves for these pairs, which range from 8 to 18 pips after past Retail Sales releases.