Retail Sales m/m comes in at 0.2% against -0.2% consensus

The US Retail Sales m/m for July came in stronger than expected, posting a 0.2% increase. This figure significantly exceeded the consensus estimate of a -0.2% contraction, representing a 200.0% surprise versus consensus. The previous month’s reading was 0.9%.

Following the release, the US Dollar showed mixed reactions against major currencies. EURUSD moved -12 pips lower 15 minutes after the release, while USDJPY moved +9.3 pips higher and USDCHF moved +9.4 pips higher over the same period. XAUUSD saw a notable decline of -240 pips 15 minutes after the release. For context, the median 1-hour move for EURUSD after past releases has been 13 pips, for USDJPY 15 pips, for USDCHF 10 pips, and for XAUUSD 34 pips. The 15-minute moves for EURUSD, USDJPY, and USDCHF were relatively close to their respective median 1-hour moves, while the XAUUSD move was significantly larger than its median 1-hour move. AUDUSD moved -5.7 pips, GBPUSD moved -3.5 pips, and NZDUSD moved -8.1 pips 15 minutes after the release. These moves were smaller compared to their respective median 1-hour moves of 9 pips, 15 pips, and 10 pips. USDCAD saw a -0.2 pip move 15 minutes after the release, which was small compared to its median 1-hour move of 12 pips.