The Week Ahead in Forex: August 2 to August 7, 2026
The week ahead, from August 2 to August 7, 2026, is poised to be significant for forex traders, with a heavy focus on US employment data and manufacturing activity. This comes after a period of notable JPY strength, with USDJPY down 4.05%, GBPJPY down 2.70%, and EURJPY down 2.52% since the reference point. The overall Risk Meter currently sits at +0.29, indicating a mild risk-on tone.
Monday will bring a series of high-impact US manufacturing reports. Traders will monitor the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, with a consensus of 54.5 following a previous 55.7. Also due are the ISM Manufacturing PMI, expected at 54.0 versus a prior 53.3, and ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid, with a consensus of 65.7 compared to the previous 73. These figures could provide early insights into the health of the US economy.
On Tuesday, attention shifts to New Zealand’s labor market. Key releases include New Zealand Employment Change q/q, with a consensus of 0.1% after a previous 0.2%, and the Unemployment Rate, expected at 5.4% against a prior 5.3%. Notably, NZDUSD has seen a +1.62% increase, but the retail crowd has shifted 8pt toward short on NZDUSD in the last 24 hours, and retail books show a 39 point disagreement on the pair.
Wednesday features more US economic indicators, starting with the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, which has a consensus of -12K following a previous 98K. Later, S&P Global Services PMI (consensus 52.7, previous 51.2), ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (consensus 54.3, previous 54), and ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices Paid (consensus 62, previous 67.7) will offer a look into the services sector. Additionally, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change is expected at -1.257M.
The week culminates on Friday with critical North American employment data. For the US, high-impact releases include US Average Hourly Earnings m/m (consensus 0.3%), Non-Farm Payrolls (consensus 88K, previous 57K), and the US Unemployment Rate (consensus 4.2%). Canada will also release its Employment Change, with a consensus of 15.0K. The USD has been among the weaker currencies over the last 24 hours, down -0.18%, while the CAD is down -0.21%.
The market’s reaction to these employment figures will likely be a key driver for currency movements and broader sentiment in the coming days.
| At a glance | |
|---|---|
| Biggest moves since last week’s open | USDJPY -4.05%, GBPJPY -2.70%, EURJPY -2.52% |
| Currency strength, 24h | JPY strongest at +1.28%, CHF weakest at -0.51% |
| Risk meter | +0.29 (risk-on) |
Scheduled this week (High and Medium impact)
| Time | Ccy | Event | Impact | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 13:45 UTC | USD | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | High | 54.5 |
| Mon 14:00 UTC | USD | ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid | High | 65.7 |
| Mon 14:00 UTC | USD | ISM Manufacturing PMI | High | 54.0 |
| Tue 22:45 UTC | NZD | New Zealand Employment Change q/q | High | 0.1% |
| Tue 22:45 UTC | NZD | Unemployment Rate | High | 5.4% |
| Wed 12:15 UTC | USD | ADP Nonfarm Employment Change | High | -12K |
| Wed 13:45 UTC | USD | S&P Global Services PMI | High | 52.7 |
| Wed 14:00 UTC | USD | ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI | High | 54.3 |
| Wed 14:00 UTC | USD | ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices Paid | High | 62 |
| Wed 14:30 UTC | USD | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | High | -1.257M |
| Fri 12:30 UTC | USD | US Average Hourly Earnings m/m | High | 0.3% |
| Fri 12:30 UTC | CAD | Canada Employment Change | High | 15.0K |
| Fri 12:30 UTC | USD | Non-Farm Payrolls | High | 88K |
| Fri 12:30 UTC | USD | US Unemployment Rate | High | 4.2% |
Times are UTC. This brief describes measured market state and the published schedule. It is not financial advice and nothing in it is a trade recommendation.