Canada Employment Change preview: Consensus expects job gain after previous decline
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| USDCAD | — | — |
Canada is set to release its Employment Change data on October 9, 2026, at 12:30 UTC. The market consensus anticipates a gain of 6.1K jobs. This follows the previous reading, which showed a significant decline of -41.7K. As a high impact release, the employment data is closely watched for insights into the health of the Canadian labor market and its potential implications for monetary policy.
Historically, this release has generated notable volatility across CAD pairs. After past releases, AUDCAD has seen a median 1-hour move of 20 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 37+ pips. CADCHF has experienced a median 14-pip move, with top-quarter releases moving 29+ pips. CADJPY has shown a median 21-pip move, with top-quarter releases moving 43+ pips. EURCAD typically sees a median 28-pip move, with top-quarter releases moving 54+ pips. GBPCAD has a median 35-pip move, with top-quarter releases moving 56+ pips. NZDCAD has recorded a median 19-pip move, with top-quarter releases moving 34+ pips. For USDCAD, the median 1-hour move has been 29 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 49+ pips, and the direction reliability stands at 70%.
Recent releases have shown varied outcomes. The September 2026 print registered -41.7K against a forecast of -30.6K, with USDCAD moving +47 pips in the hour following. In August 2026, the actual was 75.1K versus a forecast of 7.1K, leading to a -54 pips move on USDCAD. The July 2026 release saw 18.2K against a much higher forecast of 212.4K, resulting in a +1.3 pips USDCAD move.