Canada Employment Change - ForexCracked
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Canada · Employment

Canada Employment Change CAD

High impact Updated after every release
Next release Fri, Oct 9 12:30 UTC · consensus -0.7K · previous -41.7K  

What this release is

Canada Employment Change measures the net change in the number of employed people across various sectors of the Canadian economy. This key labor market indicator is published monthly by Statistics Canada. It provides insight into the health and growth of the Canadian job market, reflecting hiring and firing trends nationwide.

Forex traders closely monitor Canada Employment Change because it offers significant clues about the overall economic strength of Canada. Strong employment growth often suggests a robust economy, which can influence the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy decisions, particularly regarding interest rates. Changes in interest rate expectations can lead to notable movements in the Canadian dollar, making this a high impact release.

The market typically focuses on the headline employment change figure upon release. Revisions to prior months’ data are also carefully scrutinized, as they can alter the perceived trend in the labor market. Traders assess the report in conjunction with other labor metrics, such as the unemployment rate and wage growth, to form a comprehensive view. After past releases, significant deviations from expectations have often led to immediate and sustained volatility for the Canadian dollar.

How hard it hits, measured

143 releases · own feed
Typical USDCAD move
29pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
49pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
158pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
USDCAD25p27p29p49p
AUDCAD17p20p20p37p
CADCHF13p14p14p29p
CADJPY17p21p21p44p
EURCAD25p29p28p54p
GBPCAD28p31p35p55p
NZDCAD14p17p19p34p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus USDCAD closed the hour lower in 48 of 65 cases · median -23p n=65 live
Miss below consensus USDCAD closed the hour higher in 28 of 43 cases · median +7.9p n=43 live
In line within the surprise band Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=0 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toUSDCAD 1h
Sep 4, 2026-41.7K15.1K75.1K+47p
Sep 4, 2026+47p
Aug 7, 2026-54p
Aug 7, 202675.1K7.1K18.2K-54pStory
Jul 10, 202618.2K212.4K87.8K+1.3p
Jun 5, 202687.8K-114.1K-17.7K+4.3p
May 8, 2026-17.7K59.9K14.1K+42p
Apr 10, 202614.1K-56.5K-83.9K-13p
Mar 13, 2026-83.9K-12K-24.8K+43p
Feb 6, 2026-24.8K-11.3K8.2K-9.3p
Jan 9, 20268.2K43.9K53.6K+5.8p
Dec 5, 202553.6K4.6K66.6K-48p
Nov 7, 202566.6K112.1K60.4K-30p
Oct 10, 202560.4K-31.6K-65.5K-18p
Sep 5, 2025-65.5K-77.4K-40.8K+21p
Aug 8, 2025-40.8K70K83.1K+4.4p
Jul 11, 202583.1K-37.5K8.8K-5.0p
Jun 6, 20258.8K42.7K7.4K+12p
May 9, 20257.4K20.2K-32.6K+11p
Apr 4, 2025-32.6K-34.7K1.1K+26p
Mar 7, 20251.1K25.8K76K+17p
Feb 7, 202576K49.3K90.9K91K-33p
Jan 10, 202590.9K14.2K50.5K-33p
Dec 6, 202450.5K13.5K14.5K+36p

Showing the latest 24 of 143 tracked releases.

Reaction = USDCAD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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