Canada Employment Change preview: consensus 14.6K after a -68.3K print
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| USDCAD | — | — |
Canada’s Employment Change (CAD) is due on 2026-11-06 at 13:30 UTC and carries a High impact rating. The market consensus is 14.6K, compared with a previous reading of -68.3K. That means the consensus assumes a swing back into positive territory after the October print, which was also well below its own forecast of -0.7K. The gap between the last result and the current expectation is why this release draws attention now.
Historically, this is a release that moves CAD pairs. On USDCAD, the median 1-hour move is 29 pips, and the top quarter of releases moved 49+ pips (142 releases since 2015). GBPCAD has the largest median at 35 pips, with the top quarter at 57+ pips. EURCAD shows a median of 29 pips and 54+ pips in the top quarter. CADJPY comes in at 21 pips and 42+ pips, AUDCAD at 20 pips and 37+ pips, NZDCAD at 19 pips and 34+ pips, and CADCHF at 14 pips and 29+ pips. On USDCAD, the direction of the 1-hour move has been reliable 70% of the time in our live sample. That figure describes past behavior only.
Recent prints have been uneven against forecasts. October came in at -68.3K versus -0.7K expected, with USDCAD up 46 pips in the first hour. September was -41.7K against -30.6K, followed by a +47 pip move. August printed 75.1K against 7.1K, and USDCAD moved -54 pips. In July, 18.2K against 212.4K was followed by only +1.3 pips, and in June, 87.8K against -114.1K was followed by +4.3 pips. May’s -17.7K against 59.9K was followed by +42 pips. Past reactions have varied widely in size.