The Week Ahead in Forex: July 12 to July 17, 2026
The week of July 12 to July 17, 2026, presents a busy economic calendar, primarily centered on US inflation data and central bank commentary. Recent US Unemployment Claims came in at 215K, slightly below the 218K consensus. Equity markets show a mixed picture, with the US500 up +1.00% while the DE40 is down -2.81%. The overall risk meter currently stands at +0.12, indicating a slight risk-on sentiment.
As the week begins, traders will monitor shifts in currency strength, with JPY leading gains over the past 24 hours at +0.41%, while CHF has seen the largest decline at -0.27%. Retail positioning data shows notable shifts, including the crowd moving 8pt toward short on USDCHF and 12pt toward long on GBPJPY. EURJPY saw a crowd flip, moving from 56% short to 53% long. On Tuesday, attention will turn to the UK and US. Bank of England Governor Bailey is scheduled to speak twice, at 08:45 UTC and 20:00 UTC. Recent Bank of England speech tone scored +0.35, suggesting a hawkish sentiment.
Later on Tuesday, a series of high-impact US inflation figures are due at 12:30 UTC. Consensus for US Core CPI m/m is 0.2%, matching the previous 0.2%. Core CPI y/y is expected at 2.8%, down from 2.9% previously. For the headline figures, US CPI m/m consensus is -0.1%, a notable shift from the previous 0.5%, and CPI y/y is forecast at 3.8%, down from 4.2%. Following these releases, Fed Chairman Warsh is scheduled to testify at 14:00 UTC. The Federal Reserve’s recent testimony tone scored +0.45, indicating a hawkish sentiment.
Wednesday brings further US data and significant Canadian events. At 12:30 UTC, Core PPI m/m is expected at 0.3%, down from 0.4% previously, while PPI m/m consensus is 0.0%, a significant drop from the previous 1.1%. The Bank of Canada will be in focus at 13:45 UTC with its Monetary Policy Report, Rate Statement, and the Overnight Rate decision, where the consensus is for the rate to hold at 2.25%, matching the previous 2.25%. Fed Chairman Warsh will testify again at 14:00 UTC, followed by the BOC Press Conference at 14:30 UTC.
This week’s data will be closely watched for its implications on central bank policy expectations and potential shifts in market sentiment.
| At a glance | |
|—|—|
| Biggest moves since last week’s open | DE40 -2.81%, XAUUSD -1.32%, UK100 -1.01% |
| Currency strength, 24h | JPY strongest at +0.41%, CHF weakest at -0.27% |
| Risk meter | +0.12 (mildly risk-on) |
Scheduled this week (High and Medium impact)
| Time | Ccy | Event | Impact | Consensus |
|—|—|—|—|—|
| Tue 08:45 UTC | GBP | BOE Gov Bailey Speaks | High | – |
| Tue 12:30 UTC | USD | US Core CPI m/m | High | 0.2% |
| Tue 12:30 UTC | USD | Core CPI y/y | High | 2.8% |
| Tue 12:30 UTC | USD | US CPI m/m | High | -0.1% |
| Tue 12:30 UTC | USD | CPI y/y | High | 3.8% |
| Tue 14:00 UTC | USD | Fed Chairman Warsh Testifies | High | – |
| Tue 20:00 UTC | GBP | BOE Gov Bailey Speaks | High | – |
| Wed 12:30 UTC | USD | Core PPI m/m | High | 0.3% |
| Wed 12:30 UTC | USD | PPI m/m | High | 0.0% |
| Wed 13:45 UTC | CAD | BOC Monetary Policy Report | High | – |
| Wed 13:45 UTC | CAD | BOC Rate Statement | High | – |
| Wed 13:45 UTC | CAD | Overnight Rate | High | 2.25% |
| Wed 14:00 UTC | USD | Fed Chairman Warsh Testifies | High | – |
| Wed 14:30 UTC | CAD | BOC Press Conference | High | – |
*Times are UTC. This brief describes measured market state and the published schedule. It is not financial advice and nothing in it is a trade recommendation.*