Tokyo Core-Core CPI preview: Consensus expects an increase
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| USDJPY | — | — |
The latest Tokyo Consumer Price Index, excluding fresh food and energy, is scheduled for release on October 1 at 23:30 UTC. This key inflation metric for Japan is closely watched for its implications on Bank of Japan monetary policy. Market consensus anticipates a year-over-year increase to 2.3%, up from the previous reading of 2%. This release carries a high impact rating, indicating its potential to influence JPY crosses.
Historically, this release has often led to notable price action across JPY pairs. After past releases, JPY crosses have typically seen median 1-hour moves ranging from 5 pips to 9 pips. For example, GBPJPY has shown a median 1-hour move of 9 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 17+ pips over 122 releases since 2015. EURJPY has recorded a median 1-hour move of 8 pips, with top-quarter events moving 14+ pips over 122 releases. AUDJPY, CHFJPY, and USDJPY have each seen a median 1-hour move of 7 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 15+ pips, 13+ pips, and 14+ pips respectively, across 115-121 releases. CADJPY and NZDJPY have shown median 1-hour moves of 5 pips and 6 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 11+ pips and 12+ pips respectively, over 118 releases.
Recent prints have shown varied outcomes. The August 2026 release saw an actual 2% against a forecast of 2%, with USDJPY moving +0.9 pips. In July 2026, the actual 2% exceeded the 1.7% forecast, leading to a +36 pips move in USDJPY. The May 2026 print of 1.6% came in below the 2% forecast.