Tokyo CPI excl. Food and Energy y/y - ForexCracked
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Japan

Tokyo CPI excl. Food and Energy y/y JPY

High impact Updated after every release
Next release Thu, Oct 29 23:30 UTC · consensus 3% · previous 3%  

What this release is

The Tokyo Consumer Price Index excluding Fresh Food and Energy, reported year-over-year, measures the rate of inflation for a core basket of goods and services in Japan’s capital. This monthly release is published by Japan’s national statistics office, stat.go.jp, and is a key indicator for the prices sector.

Forex traders closely monitor this core inflation metric as it provides insight into underlying price trends, which are crucial for the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy decisions. Sustained changes in inflation can influence the central bank’s stance on interest rates, affecting the Japanese Yen’s valuation against other currencies.

After past releases, this series has typically shown a high impact on the JPY. Market participants often focus on the headline year-over-year figure. While initial readings are important, any revisions to previous months’ data can also draw significant attention and lead to market movements.

How hard it hits, measured

123 releases · own feed
Typical USDJPY move
7pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
14pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
50pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
USDJPY2.2p2.6p7.2p14p
AUDJPY1.9p2.8p7.3p15p
CADJPY1.9p2.4p5.1p11p
CHFJPY2.3p3.0p6.8p13p
EURJPY2.2p2.9p8.0p14p
GBPJPY3.2p3.7p9.2p18p
NZDJPY2.0p2.1p6.1p12p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus USDJPY closed the hour lower in 25 of 50 cases · median -0.2p n=50 live
Miss below consensus USDJPY closed the hour higher in 28 of 39 cases · median +6.1p n=39 live
In line within the surprise band USDJPY closed the hour lower in 14 of 19 cases · median -3.5p n=19 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toUSDJPY 1h
Oct 1, 20263%2.3%2%—-6.8p—
Aug 27, 20262%2%2%1.8%+0.9p—
Jul 30, 20262%1.7%1.9%—+36p—
Jun 25, 20261.9%1.8%1.6%—+2.3p—
May 28, 20261.6%2%1.9%—+4.0p—
Apr 30, 20261.9%2.2%2.3%———
Mar 30, 20262.3%2.2%2.5%———
Feb 26, 20262.5%2.5%2.4%—-22p—
Jan 29, 20262.4%2.5%2.6%—+50p—
Dec 25, 20252.6%3.2%2.8%—+42p—
Nov 27, 20252.8%2.8%2.8%—+8.8p—
Oct 30, 20252.8%2.3%2.5%—-19p—
Sep 25, 20252.5%3%3%—-8.7p—
Aug 28, 20253%3.1%3.1%—+4.5p—
Jul 24, 20253.1%3.6%3.1%—+5.7p—
Jun 26, 20253.1%3.5%3.3%—+30p—
May 29, 20253.3%3.3%3.1%—-23p—
Apr 24, 20253.1%2.4%2.2%—+12p—
Mar 27, 20252.2%2.1%1.9%—+3.7p—
Feb 27, 20251.9%2%1.9%—-4.2p—
Jan 30, 20251.9%1.9%1.8%—-15p—
Dec 26, 20241.8%1.8%1.9%—+1.3p—
Nov 28, 20241.9%0.9%1.8%—-37p—
Oct 24, 20241.8%0.8%1.6%—+10p—

Showing the latest 24 of 123 tracked releases.

Reaction = USDJPY move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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