Tokyo Core-Core CPI preview: Consensus holds at 3%
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| USDJPY | — | — |
On October 29, 2026, at 23:30 UTC, Japan will release the Tokyo CPI excl. Food and Energy y/y data. This high impact inflation gauge is closely watched by the Bank of Japan for monetary policy decisions. The market consensus anticipates a reading of 3%, matching the previous month’s figure of 3%.
Historically, this release has generated notable movements in JPY crosses. For instance, AUDJPY has seen a median 1-hour move of 7 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 15+ pips over 122 releases since 2015. Similarly, GBPJPY has recorded a median 1-hour move of 9 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 18+ pips over 123 releases. USDJPY has typically moved a median of 7 pips in the hour following the release, with top-quarter moves exceeding 14 pips across 118 releases. Direction-reliability statistics are not yet available for this event.
Recent prints show varied outcomes. The October 2026 release came in at 3% against a forecast of 2.3%, with USDJPY moving -6.8 pips. In August 2026, the actual was 2%, matching the forecast, and USDJPY saw a +0.9 pip move. The July 2026 release, at 2% versus a 1.7% forecast, led to a +36 pip move in USDJPY.