Tokyo Core-Core CPI preview: Inflation expected to cool slightly
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| USDJPY | — | — |
FXC Terminal’s calendar desk notes the upcoming release of Tokyo CPI excl. Food and Energy y/y on 2026-07-30 at 23:30 UTC. Market consensus anticipates a reading of 1.7%, a slight deceleration from the previous 1.9%. This ‘core-core’ inflation measure from Japan’s capital is considered a key leading indicator for national inflation trends and is closely watched by the Bank of Japan, contributing to its High impact rating for JPY pairs.
Historically, this release has generated notable price action. Our data shows that after past releases, AUDJPY has seen a median 1-hour move of 7 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 15+ pips. CADJPY has experienced a median 5 pips move, with top-quarter releases moving 11+ pips. CHFJPY typically moves 7 pips (median) and 13+ pips (top-quarter). EURJPY has a median move of 8 pips and top-quarter moves of 14+ pips. GBPJPY shows a median 9 pips move and top-quarter moves of 17+ pips. NZDJPY has a median 6 pips move and top-quarter moves of 12+ pips. USDJPY has a median 7 pips move and top-quarter moves of 14+ pips. These statistics are measured over 113 to 120 releases since 2015. Direction-reliability statistics are not yet unlocked for this event.
Recent prints for this series show varied outcomes. The June 2026 release came in at 1.9% against a forecast of 1.8%, with USDJPY moving +2.3 pips in the hour following. In May 2026, the actual was 1.6% against a 2.0% forecast, leading to a +4.0 pips USDJPY move. The May 2026 reading was 1.9% against a 2.2% forecast. March 2026 saw 2.3% versus 2.2% forecast. February 2026 was 2.5% matching the 2.5% forecast, resulting in a -22 pips USDJPY move. January 2026 was 2.4% against a 2.5% forecast, with USDJPY moving +50 pips.