Trade Balance (JPY) comes in at -1105.6B against 71.2B consensus

Japan’s Trade Balance for September 2026 registered a deficit of -1105.6B JPY. This figure significantly missed the consensus expectation of a 71.2B JPY surplus. The actual print represents a substantial deterioration compared to the previous month’s deficit of -634.5B JPY, resulting in a surprise of -1652.8% against the consensus.

Following the release, JPY pairs generally moved lower against major currencies over the initial 15 minutes. AUDJPY declined by -10 pips, CADJPY by -9.8 pips, and CHFJPY by -8.9 pips. EURJPY saw a -11 pip move, while GBPJPY moved -17 pips. NZDJPY was down -11 pips, and USDJPY decreased by -9.1 pips. These moves are generally in line with or larger than the median 1-hour moves observed after past Trade Balance releases, such as the median 1-hour move of 8 pips for AUDJPY and USDJPY, 5 pips for CADJPY, 6 pips for CHFJPY and EURJPY, 8 pips for GBPJPY, and 7 pips for NZDJPY. For some pairs, the 15-minute move already approaches or exceeds the top-quarter release moves, for example, GBPJPY’s -17 pips compared to a typical top-quarter move of 13+ pips.