Trade Balance - ForexCracked
Japan

Trade Balance JPY

Medium impact Updated after every release
Next release Tue, Oct 20 23:50 UTC · consensus -689.6B · previous -1105.6B  

What this release is

Japan’s Trade Balance measures the difference in value between the nation’s total exports and imports of goods. This monthly report, focusing on the trade sector, is officially published by customs.go.jp.

Forex traders monitor the Trade Balance for its implications on the Japanese Yen. A consistent trade surplus, where exports exceed imports, indicates a net inflow of foreign currency, which can support demand for the JPY. Conversely, a trade deficit, with imports surpassing exports, suggests a net outflow of currency, potentially weighing on the Yen. This series offers insight into Japan’s international trade health.

The market typically focuses on the headline figure of the Trade Balance. While the initial release often garners attention, subsequent revisions can also influence market sentiment. After past releases, the JPY has sometimes shown a reaction to significant deviations from expectations, aligning with the series’ typical medium impact rating.

How hard it hits, measured

123 releases · own feed
Typical USDJPY move
7pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
11pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
68pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
USDJPY1.6p5.4p7.4p11p
AUDJPY1.9p3.7p7.5p12p
CADJPY1.4p3.5p4.5p8.2p
CHFJPY1.8p4.1p5.5p10p
EURJPY1.7p4.6p5.5p14p
GBPJPY2.5p5.6p7.6p13p
NZDJPY1.8p4.0p6.6p12p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus USDJPY closed the hour higher in 27 of 47 cases · median +1.6p n=47 live
Miss below consensus USDJPY closed the hour higher in 38 of 57 cases · median +4.7p n=57 live
In line within the surprise band Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=0 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toUSDJPY 1h
Sep 15, 2026-1105.6B71.2B-634.5B-638.3B+1.3p—
Aug 19, 2026-634.5B287.1B-406.9B-409.9B+14p—
Jul 21, 2026-406.9B72.5B-378.7B-391.8B-6.8p—
Jun 16, 2026-378.7B-154.7B301.9B299.3B-2.1p—
May 20, 2026301.9B33.6B667B643B——
Apr 21, 2026667B167.2B57.3B44.3B-9.1p—
Mar 17, 202657.3B—-1152.7B-1163.5B——
Feb 17, 2026-1152.7B—105.7B113.5B-5.8p—
Jan 22, 2026105.7B—322.2B316.7B+8.8p—
Dec 16, 2025322.2B386.1B-231.8B-226.1B-10p—
Nov 20, 2025-231.8B-92.3B-234.6B-237.4B-5.7p—
Oct 21, 2025-234.6B178.3B-242.5B-242.5B-22p—
Sep 16, 2025-242.5B-84B-117.6B-118.4B+8.2p—
Aug 19, 2025-117.6B-486.9B153.1B152.1B+7.6p—
Jul 16, 2025153.1B535.3B-637.6B-638.6B+36p—
Jun 17, 2025-637.6B-887.6B-115.8B-115.6B-10p—
May 20, 2025-115.8B-858.2B544.1B559.4B-1.8p—
Apr 16, 2025544.1B631.2B584.5B590.5B+68p—
Mar 18, 2025584.5B-2377.1B-2758.8B-2736.6B+11p—
Feb 18, 2025-2758.8B-206.9B130.9B132.5B+4.1p—
Jan 22, 2025130.9B144.6B-117.6B-110.3B-4.0p—
Dec 17, 2024-117.6B-233.8B-461.2B-462.1B+22p—
Nov 19, 2024-461.2B-803B-294.3B-294.1B+21p—
Oct 16, 2024-294.3B-94.7B-695.3B-703.2B-6.8p—

Showing the latest 24 of 123 tracked releases.

Reaction = USDJPY move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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