Trimmed CPI y/y (CAD) preview: Consensus holds at 2.0%
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| USDCAD | — | — |
Canada’s Trimmed CPI y/y data is scheduled for release on 2026-07-20 at 12:30 UTC. This inflation metric carries a High impact rating for the Canadian dollar. Market consensus currently forecasts the Trimmed CPI y/y to be 2.0%, which aligns with the previous reading of 2.0%. As a core inflation measure, the Trimmed CPI is closely monitored by the Bank of Canada in its monetary policy decisions. Any significant deviation from the consensus could prompt market re-evaluation of interest rate expectations.
Historically, this release has generated notable price action across CAD pairs. After past releases, USDCAD has seen a median 1-hour move of 15 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 33+ pips over 114 instances since 2015. EURCAD has recorded a median 1-hour move of 23 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 36+ pips over 114 releases. GBPCAD has experienced a median 1-hour move of 24 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 46+ pips over 112 releases. CADJPY has seen a median 1-hour move of 16 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 29+ pips over 112 releases.
Recent prints show varied outcomes. In June 2026, the actual Trimmed CPI y/y was 2% against a forecast of 1.9%, after which USDCAD moved +22 pips. The May 2026 release saw an actual 2% matching the 2% forecast, with USDCAD moving +13 pips. In April 2026, the actual was 2.2% versus a 2.1% forecast, and USDCAD moved -11 pips.