Trimmed CPI y/y (CAD) preview: Consensus holds steady
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| USDCAD | — | — |
Canada’s Trimmed CPI y/y data is scheduled for release on August 17, 2026, at 12:30 UTC. Market consensus anticipates a reading of 1.8%, which aligns with the previous month’s figure of 1.8%. This core inflation measure is closely watched by the Bank of Canada for its monetary policy decisions, and the release carries a high impact rating, indicating its potential to influence CAD currency pairs.
Historically, this release has generated notable volatility across Canadian dollar crosses. After past Trimmed CPI y/y (CAD) releases, USDCAD has seen a median 1-hour move of 15 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 33+ pips. EURCAD has experienced a median 1-hour move of 22 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 36+ pips. GBPCAD has shown a median 1-hour move of 24 pips, and top-quarter releases have moved 46+ pips. Other pairs like AUDCAD, CADCHF, CADJPY, and NZDCAD have also demonstrated median 1-hour moves of 12 pips, 10 pips, 16 pips, and 13 pips respectively.
Recent data prints show varied outcomes. The July 2026 release registered an actual of 1.8% against a forecast of 2%, resulting in a USDCAD 1-hour move of +4.1 pips. In June 2026, the actual was 2% versus a forecast of 1.9%, with USDCAD moving +22 pips. The May 2026 print was 2%, matching the forecast, and USDCAD moved +13 pips.