UK Claimant Count Change preview: Consensus points to an increase in jobless claims
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| GBPUSD | — | — |
The UK Claimant Count Change is due on August 18, 2026, at 06:00 UTC. Market consensus anticipates a rise of 11.2K, following the previous reading of 6.7K. This high impact release offers insight into the health of the UK labor market, a key factor for the Bank of England’s monetary policy considerations.
Historically, this release has generated notable volatility across GBP pairs. EURGBP has seen a median 1-hour move of 8 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 14+ pips over 118 releases since 2015. GBPAUD and GBPNZD have shown larger median 1-hour moves of 22 pips, with top-quarter releases exceeding 37+ pips and 39+ pips respectively. GBPUSD has a median 1-hour move of 15 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 27+ pips. The direction reliability on GBPUSD has been 48%. GBPCAD, GBPCHF, and GBPJPY have also experienced significant moves, with median 1-hour changes of 15 pips, 13 pips, and 18 pips respectively.
Recent prints show varying impacts on GBPUSD. The July 2026 actual of 6.7K led to a +4.5 pip move. In June 2026, an actual of 31.3K resulted in a +13 pip move, while May 2026’s 26.5K saw a -17 pip move. February 2026’s actual of 28.6K was followed by a -49 pip move on GBPUSD.